Meta Data Analysis of Photo Postings on Telegram Groups Intel Slava (pro-RUS) and Ukraine Today (pro-UKR) between 20- Feb and 6- Jul.
The key investigation was how Meta data correlates to actual happenings on ground. Intel Slava is a Russian news Aggregator with over 400K followers and is supposed to be funded by Putin, Russian ministry of defence, FSB, GRU and SVR. Ukraine Today is a smaller channel with about 31K followers. Funding is unclear but seems to have sprung up spontaneously on people's inititiative. Maybe posters are ordinary people or sleected people.
Both groups have been popular among expatriate populations of both countries.
While chats, videos and photo's are all present, extracting post information from videos on Ukraine Today was difficult. Hence posting of photo's have been used to measure the intensity of informtion being put out.
Intel Slave has been around for longer and their post history is given below:
Since the war started, the activity has increased. Plotted together there are startling patterns on the absolute number of photo posts done:
Almost as if each group has been fighting the social war in tango. One leads, another slows down.
Plotted as %age of activity during this time, since the resources in each group are different, the graph is starker.
| Period | Group in Ascendant | Events in Real World |
| A- Week 10 to Week 11 (27th Feb to 12th Mar) | UKR | Fully 1/6th of all UKR posts in this 20 week period done here. This is the phase when the invasion started, and Social Media was replete with examples of a tractor driver stealing a BMP, a 'бабушка' giving laxatives to RUS Soldiers. High enthusiasm cheering posts.
2nd Mar is interesting. For first time UKR claimed to have gone on offensive in Horilivka. Kharkiv paratrooper attack. Kherson captured by RUS. It's almost as if UKR was cheering on their troop attacks
7th and 8th Mar- Again Interesting as UKR side continued to pump out photos. Mariupol evacuation |
| B-Week 13 to 14: 20th Mar to 2nd Apr | RUS | UKR groups tend to become silent. Specially after 28 Mar. Talks happening in Istanbul. RUS is de-escalation around Kyiv and Chernihiv to focus around Donbass |
| C-Week 15 end through Week 18 (3 Apr to 30 Apr) | UKR+ RUS | 15% of UKR posts. In Week 15, it's concetrated around Bucha massacre, but otherwise a quiet week.
Things start heating up from Week 16 (13 to 15 Apr) Moskva sunk. It's as if the UKR side has come back to life and there is a fightback from RUS groups
Week 17 (17 Apr to 24 Apr)- Donbass offensive and Mariupol is taken by RUS. UKR starts to flag, and increased activty in RUS Groups
Week 18 (24 to 30 Apr)- Azovstal Steelworks attacked. UKR groups posting on visit of Blinken and Austin Llyod. Kherson occupation and instructions to use Roubles.
It is this phase which seems that the war had reached it's climax as both groups posted volumnously in this phase after the first lull following the invasion |
| D- Week 19 to 21 (1 May to 21 May) | UKR+ RUS | Relative lull. In Week 20, UKR groups grow very silent. RUS claims hitting NATO supplied arms depots, UKR withdrawal from around Kharkiv. |
| E- Week 23 (29 May to 4 Jun) | UKR | Probably the busiest week in UKR groups. Close to 15% of posts made in this week.
UKR claims that RUS has suffered high casualties in the Battle of Sievierodonetsk for connecting road between Lysychansk-Bakhmut. Zelensky visits Kharkiv for first time since war started.
Information of delivery of M142 HIMARS and the US Cyber Com acting on behalf of UKR against RUS targets |
| F- Week 25 (12 Jun onwards) | RUS | UKR groups fall almost silent. As if deep down this public group has given up. Refelecting a realization of what is actually happening on the field |
